The official price of CBAM certificates for Q1 2026 has been published.

For the first quarter of 2026, it amounts to EUR 75.36 per tCO₂. This is a significant milestone not only from the perspective of the CBAM mechanism’s architecture, but above all for businesses importing goods into the European Union that are covered by this system. For the first time, the market has received an official benchmark that makes it possible to translate regulatory obligations into concrete cost calculations.

At this stage, one point should be made clear: the publication of the price does not mean that importers are already purchasing CBAM certificates. The sale of certificates is set to begin only in February 2027 and will cover emissions embedded in goods imported in 2026. In other words, 2026 is the first year in which a real financial parameter of CBAM appears, but it is not yet the year in which importers physically purchase certificates.

This does not change the fact that the significance of this publication is substantial. The price of EUR 75.36 per tCO₂ was set as the quarterly weighted average of EU ETS allowance auction prices for the period January – March 2026. The Commission clearly indicates that throughout 2026 it will publish four quarterly prices, while from 2027 the system will transition to publishing weekly prices. This approach demonstrates that the EU legislator is deliberately managing the transition from a phase of modelling and preparation to a phase of full operational CBAM settlement.

For importers, the practical implication is clear: CBAM is no longer just a reporting obligation – it has become a factor that can now be priced. The official quarterly price allows companies to start estimating CBAM’s impact on profit margins, pricing strategies, total purchase costs, and discussions with suppliers outside the European Union. In many cases, this is the moment when a real assessment begins to determine whether previous assumptions about the profitability of imports remain valid once the cost of embedded emissions is taken into account.

From a business management perspective, the publication of the first CBAM price is significant in at least three areas.

First, it serves as a signal for procurement and logistics departments. Importers should now analyze not only the volumes and origin of goods but also data on embedded emissions and the quality of information received from suppliers. Without this, even formally correct reporting may not be sufficient to accurately estimate the future cost of purchasing certificates.

Second, this is an important moment for finance and controlling. With an official reference price now available, companies can build more reliable cost scenarios for 2026 and 2027. For some businesses, this means revising budgets, reassessing the profitability of specific import routes, and reviewing transfer pricing models and commercial contracts.

Third, the publication of the price increases the importance of relationships with non – EU suppliers. Importers without organized access to data on embedded emissions will find themselves at a growing disadvantage in negotiations. In practice, competitive advantage may no longer depend solely on the price of the goods, but also on the quality and reliability of environmental data provided by the producer. The CBAM mechanism is therefore beginning to influence not only regulatory compliance but also the very structure of the supply chain.

It is worth remembering that the system’s design goes beyond the eventual surrender of certificates. Authorized CBAM declarants will, as a rule, have to surrender certificates annually, while also ensuring that the number of certificates held in the registry at the end of each quarter corresponds to at least 80% of the embedded emissions in goods imported since the beginning of the year. This means that CBAM was from the outset conceived as a mechanism affecting liquidity, procurement planning, and the ongoing management of cost exposure.

For many companies, the schedule of upcoming publications will also be important. The Commission has already announced the dates for the next quarterly CBAM certificate prices for 2026: the Q2 price will be published on 6 July 2026, the Q3 price on 5 October 2026, and the Q4 price on 4 January 2027. This means that throughout 2026, businesses will receive regular price signals, allowing them to update financial assumptions and compare the dynamics of emission costs with the EU ETS market situation.

From a business perspective, the key takeaway is straightforward. CBAM has now entered a stage where companies can no longer treat it solely as a compliance project or a ,,future concern.” With an official reference price in place, the mechanism can and must be translated into concrete figures: import costs, profit margins, contract profitability, procurement strategies, and the structure of supplier negotiations. For some importers, 2026 will effectively be the last period in which data, calculation models, and contractual assumptions can be organized before the actual purchase of certificates begins in 2027.

Viewed more broadly, the first official CBAM certificate price carries symbolic significance. It demonstrates that the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism is no longer just a regulatory concept – it has become a system with a measurable financial impact. In practice, it is from this point that the real discussion begins, not about the existence of CBAM itself, but about who in the supply chain will ultimately bear its cost and how that cost will be allocated between the importer, the supplier, and the end customer.

For inquiries, please contact: Łukasz Pamuła, Senior Manager, lukasz.pamula@thedy.pl